NFL Week 15 betting preview: Track line moves and odds for Sunday games

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For all Fantasy Football managers, the fruits of your labor are about to pay off as you embark on the fantasy playoffs. For sports bettors, especially those who like to bet on their favorites, the course has been a bit more tumultuous.

The underdogs continue to hold an advantage in the overall betting result with a season score of 109-96-1 (53.2%). In week 14, however, punters beat sports betting as the favorites took advantage of their most dominant week of the season by posting records of 12-2 Straight-Up (SU) and 11-3 Against. The Spread (ATS).

It is often beneficial to dive in and take a deeper look at the numbers. As we continue to insist on Paris SI, if you assume that blindly supporting NFL home teams is a profitable business this season, then your bankroll has taken a hit.

Home teams are only 91-116-1 (44.0%), while home favorites are a disappointing 96-109-1 (46.8%) ATS over 14 weeks.

The action on the grill returns Thursday night with an AFC West showdown between the Chiefs and Chargers. The Chiefs are currently a 3-point road favorite, with a 54.5 total sitting on the game at SI Sportsbook.

Let’s take a look at several of the bigger games that have drawn considerable betting attention, resulting in some noticeable line moves on the Sunday slate.

Check the Week 15 NFL lines on SI Sportsbook

NFL ‘On The Move’ Week 15 Games

Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions

Moneyline: Arizona (-699) | Detroit (+500)
Propagated: ARZ -12.5 (-110) | DET +12.5 (-110)
Total: 47.5 – Over: (-110) | Less: 47.5 (-110)
Game Info: 19 Dec. 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

This game started at the start of betting in August with Arizona as a 6.5-point road favorite, but adapted to an opening line for the Cardinals as a 12.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook. Arizona, after a home loss to the Rams, will look to bolster their quest for the NFC West crown. The Cardinals (9-4 SU) are road warriors, posting the league’s best scores 7-0 SU and ATS away from State Farm Stadium.

Detroit, the NFL’s worst team at 1-11-1, actually rewarded punters with an 8-5 ATS score. The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and will be looking for their second straight home victory after upsetting the Vikings in Week 13 as a 7-point underdog.

Arizona is tied for fourth with an average of 28.2 points per game, and will look to exploit the 29th-ranked Detroit defense, allowing 27.2 points per game. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS this season when favored by more than one touchdown, most notably as a 20.5-point home favorite against Houston in Week 7.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public bets: 56% silver on Arizona
Line shift: Arizona -6.5 to Arizona -12.5

2021 against the propagation record

ARZ: 9-4 ATS (Home: 2-4 ATS, Away: 7-0 ATS)
DET: 8-5 ATS (Home: 4-2 ATS, Away: 4-3 ATS)

2020 against the propagation record

ARZ: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
DET: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

micah-parsons-celebrating-dallas-cowboys

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Moneyline: Dallas (-500) | New-York (+375)
Propagated: DAL -10.5 (-110) | NYG +10.5 (-110)
Total: 44.5 – Over: (-110) | Less: 44.5 (-110)
Game Info: 19 Dec. 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX

The game that has seen the biggest movement since the start of August involves the NFC East tilt between the Cowboys and Giants. That game opened up as a “Pick” over the summer, but punters have since made Dallas a double-digit favorite.

The Giants are 3-3 ATS at home and will face a Cowboys team that is 6-1 ATS on the road. Dallas, which has the second-best offense in the NFL (29.2 points per game), will face a New York defense which has given up 23.5 points per game in the last four games. The Cowboys have dominated the Giants in recent times, winning eight of the last 10 games, including a profitable 7-3 ATS mark in that streak.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public bets: 58% silver on Dallas
Line shift: Dallas’ PK to Dallas -10.5

2021 against the propagation record

DAL: 10-3 ATS (home: 4-2 ATS, away: 6-1 ATS)
NYG: 6-7 ATS (Home: 3-3 ATS, Away: 3-4 ATS)

2020 against the propagation record

DAL: 5-11 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
NYG: 9-7 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 6-2 ATS)

Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay (2) reacts after breaking pass

Washington Football Team vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Moneyline: Washington (+310) | Philadelphia (-400)
Propagated: WSH +9.5 (-110) | PHI -9.5 (-110)
Total: 44 – More of: (-110) | Less: 43.5 (-110)
Game Info: 19 Dec. 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

The Washington football team will be looking to bounce back from their loss at home last week to NFC East rivals Dallas, when they lead the Turnpike to face yet another foe in the Eagles Division. Washington, despite records of 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS, has recently rewarded its fans with lucrative scores of 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games.

Philadelphia was ranked among the home favorites by 1.5 points in early betting, only to see that demand skyrocket to 9.5 points. The Eagles are 3-1 SU and ATS over the past four weeks, and continue to reward bettors no matter who’s under center.

When Jalen Hurts fell, substitute Gardner Minshew stepped in and led the Eagles to a 33-18 road win over the Jets. Pro money is investing in Philadelphia, which has the NFL’s best rushing offense (160.0 rushing yards per game), will be successful against a Washington club that placed 21 players on the COVID roster -19. The Eagles own marks of 6-4 SU and ATS over the last 10 clashes between these rivals.

Public bets: 52% money on Washington
Line shift: Philadelphia -1.5 to Philadelphia -9.5

2021 against the propagation record

WSH: 5-8 ATS (Home: 2-5 ATS, Away: 3-3 ATS)
RPS: 7-6 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)

2020 against the propagation record

WSH: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
RPS: 6-10 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay Packers in Baltimore Ravens

Moneyline: Baie Verte (-250) | Baltimore (+205)
Propagated: GB -5.5 (-110) | BAL +5.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 – Over (-110) | Less than 43.5 (-110)
Game Info: 19 Dec. 2021 | 4:25 p.m. ET | SCS

The Packers, the first 3-point road underdog against Baltimore in August, were adjusted to 5.5-point favorites in Sunday’s opener on SI Sportsbook.

Green Bay is 5-2 ATS at Lambeau Field this season and faces a Ravens team that has lost back-to-back games and may find themselves without star quarterback Lamar Jackson (ankle).

The Packers own the NFL’s best ATS record at 11-2 and are looking to secure their third straight SU and ATS victory over a Ravens defense that ranks 31st against the pass, allowing 266.1 passing yards through match. The Ravens are expected to start Tyler Huntley under center against a passing defense from Green Bay who ranks 10th in passing yards allowed (218.5). Baltimore will need to find production for the league’s third-best rushing offense (144.8) if he has any hope of controlling the time of the possession battle by keeping Aaron Rodgers and the powerful Packers’ offense on the sidelines.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public bets: 58% silver on Green Bay
Line shift: Baltimore -3 to Green Bay -5.5

2021 against the propagation record

FR: 11-2 ATS (Home: 6-0 ATS, Away: 5-2 ATS)
BALL: 6-7 ATS (Home: 3-3 ATS, Away: 3-4 ATS)

2020 against the propagation record

FR: GB: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS
BALL: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

Frankie Taddeo is a high stakes fantasy football player who created the very first DFS program ever offered at a Las Vegas bookie. Frankie is the Senior Analyst at SI Betting and provides extensive experience and resources in the sports betting arena. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest bets and fantastic ideas from Las Vegas.

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Check out the last lines on SI Sportsbook

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